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2019年上半年汕头经济运行情况
  • 2019-08-30 16:57
  • 来源:汕头市统计局
  • 发布机构:汕头市统计局
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  • 内容摘要:本文分析了2019上半年汕头经济运行总体情况及支撑基础,指出经济运行中存在的五大压力,并提出相关工作建议

    关键词:2019年上半年  经济运行  情况分析

    上半年,全市经济运行总体平稳,增长基础仍然较为稳固,积极因素有效增加,经济继续保持相当的韧性。同时,受市场需求总体偏弱、转型升级较为缓慢、经济运行处于阶段性调整期等因素影响,全市经济下行压力较大。

    一、上半年经济运行继续在合理区间运行,稳增长支撑基础较为扎实

    经省核定,上半年全市实现地区生产总值1267.85亿元,同比增长6.0%,增速在全省各市排第10位。增速排位在汕头之前的9个城市,其中6个是珠三角地区发达城市,3个是粤东西北地区城市,其经济总量均不足汕头的一半。分产业看,第一产业增加值53.18亿元,增长3.5%;第二产业增加值602.95亿元,增长5.4%;第三产业增加值611.72亿元,增长6.8%。三次产业结构调整为4.2:47.6:48.2,服务业比重比上年同期提高0.8个百分点,经济结构持续优化。从供给侧、需求侧和积极因素看,三大支撑点有力拉动经济在合理区间运行。

    (一)支撑点一:三次产业发展总体平稳

    上半年,全市三次产业“两升一缓”,第一产业和第三产业增速分别比上年同期提高1和0.9个百分点,第二产业增速比去年同期回落4个百分点,三大拉力此消彼长,拉动经济稳步增长。

    农业经济加快发展。上半年全市农林牧渔业增加值同比增长3.9%,增幅比上年同期提高1个百分点。其中,占比最大的农业增加值(比重58.5%)增长5.3%,比上年同期提高3.5个百分点,蔬菜及食用菌和园林水果产量分别增长5.6 %和11.6%;林业增加值增长13.0%,比上年同期提高5.8个百分点;渔业增加值增长3.3%,比上年同期略回落0.4个百分点;受禁限养区划定和国内非洲猪瘟等疫病的影响,上半年牧业增加值下降5.5%,降幅比上年同期扩大5个百分点。

    工业生产缓中存稳。上半年,全市规模以上工业实现增加值366.49亿元,同比增长2.6%,增幅比一季度回落3.1个百分点,但工业生产稳增长的积极因素依然不少,工业经济发展的主要支撑仍较为坚实。一是工业保持较大的增长面。上半年全市制造业31个大类行业中,有22个行业实现增加值正增长,其中12个行业增速超过10%,行业增长面有普遍性;与一季度对比,12个行业增加值比一季度提速或降幅收窄。二是工业企业效益情况好于全省平均水平。1-5月全市规上工业利润总额同比增长2.5%,比全省高出5.1个百分点,其中制造业利润总额增长4.2%,增幅环比提高2个百分点,小微型企业利润增长11.4%,高于大中型企业15.2个百分点,说明全市工业发展仍然保持相对较好的生产经营效益。三是支柱产业支撑性仍然较好。上半年化工塑料、食品医药、印刷包装行业增加值分别增长7.3%、8.8%和5.3%,均超过全市规上工业增速,其中,食品医药行业增速比一季度加快3.7个百分点。四是新上规模企业贡献较大。136家新入库的规上工业企业,上半年实现增加值增长76.5%,拉动全市规模以上工业增速0.8个百分点。

    建筑业发展态势良好。上半年,建筑业实现增加值67.30亿元,同比增长17.0%,增幅比上年同期提高12.1个百分点,对经济的贡献率为12.5%,比上年同期贡献力度高出9.5个百分点,对全市经济增长的贡献进一步加大。重点建筑业企业拉动明显。全市特、一级资质总承包企业29家,上半年完成建筑业产值增长17.8%,比上年同期提高9.9个百分点,占全部总产值的比重为77.3%,有力拉动全市建筑业稳步增长。工程储备较为充足。全市资质内建筑业企业签订合同额同比增长26.1%,其中新签合同额增长20.9%,反映市场信心向好。民营建筑业企业成为中坚力量。民营建筑业企业产值同比增长13.5%,占全部建筑业产值的比重达到64.7%,是全市建筑业加快发展的重要基础力量。

    服务业是经济平稳增长的稳定器。上半年,全市服务业对地区生产总值的贡献率达到52.4%,比上年同期提高15.5个百分点。金融业、交通运输仓储和邮政业、其他营利性服务业是服务业平稳增长的三大动力。从具体的基础指标看,金融机构本外币贷款余额快速增长20.4%,证券业交易额大幅增长25.3%,比上年同期提高20.9个百分点,保费收入各月持续保持两位数增长,至5月累计增长14.0%,有力支撑金融业增加值增长8.2%;铁路、公路、水路运输总周转量分别增长10.1%、9.9%和8.0%,邮政业务总量增长19.6%,拉动交通运输、仓储和邮政业增加值增长7.4%,充分显示经济发展仍然保持了较好的热度;电信业务总量增长76.5%,规模以上其他营利性服务业营业收入增长13.3%,拉动其他营利性服务业增加值增长18.2%。房地产业、其他非营利性服务业起到实质性贡献。上半年全市商品房销售面积同比下降13.6%,降幅比一季度收窄19.7个百分点,拉动房地产业增加值增长3.1%,虽然商品房销售面积增速仍处负增长区间,但是降幅的大幅收窄为服务业稳步增长起到重要作用,对经济的拉动由负转正;3月份起财政八项支出基本保持两位数增长,至6月累计增长14.1%,拉动非营利性服务业增加值增长6.9%,说明公共服务对经济发展保持较好的支持力度。现代服务业和生产性服务业增长快于全部服务业。上半年全市现代服务业增加值增长10.4%,生产性服务业增长9.1%,分别比全部服务业快3.6和2.3个百分点,占服务业的比重均达到五成,反映服务业结构有效优化。

       (二)支撑点二:三驾马车保持较快增长

    上半年,全市投资、消费、出口三大领域“一稳两升”,经济发展的拉动力总体呈提升态势,反映汕头稳增长的基础较为扎实巩固。

    固定资产投资保持两位数增长。上半年,全市固定资产投资同比增长12.8%,增幅比一季度提高1.6个百分点,增速在全省各市排第5位,今年以来连续四个月保持两位数增长。基础设施建设投资是固定资产保持较快增长的最重要因素。全市基础设施完成投资335.00亿元,占全部投资的比重为34.1%,同比增长68.3%,增幅比上年同期提高19.6个百分点。其中,环保基础设施投入加大,潮阳、潮南练江流域综合整治项目全力推进;市政基础设施加大补短板力度,中心城区路网快速化升级改造项目全面启动建设,汕湛高速、潮汕环线高速全面铺开建设,牛田洋快速通道、凤东路等重大PPP项目用地取得较大进展,建设进度加快。服务业投资保持较快增速。上半年全市完成服务业投资565.60亿元,增长17.8%,今年以来连续五个月增速保持在17.0%左右,占全部投资的比重近六成,是拉动投资平稳较快增长的主要拉力;从行业看,金融业、文化体育和娱乐业等现代服务业行业的投资加快,上半年分别增长555.6%和45.3%,批发和零售业、水利环境和公共设施管理业、居民服务修理和其他服务业等与民生密切相关的行业投资也同步提速,上半年分别增长70.2%、79.9%和51.5%。

    市场消费平稳增长。上半年,全市实现社会消费品零售总额937.05亿元,同比增长6.1%,与一季度持平,今年以来各月增速波动范围在1个百分点以内。乡村消费继续扩大。乡村振兴战略工作进一步推动农民收入不断增加,消费能力有所提升,乡村消费规模不断扩大,上半年全市乡村消费品零售额同比增长9.3%,增速比城镇市场高出4.2个百分点。信息消费、电子商务等新兴消费势头较好。上半年全市限上企业通过互联网实现的商品零售额同比增长31.7%,通讯器材类商品零售额增长14.7%;快递业务量增长19.8%,业务量在全国排第19位,在全省排第5位。与居民日常生活消费密切相关的商品销售较快增长。体育娱乐用品类增长45.2%,家用电器及音像制品器材类增长35.6%,金银珠宝类增长20.8%,家具类增长19.7%,粮油食品类增长17.7%。

    进出口连续两个季度保持快速增长势头。上半年,在我市积极稳外贸的政策效应下,全市进出口总额289.7亿元,同比增长11.8%,增幅比上年同期提高13.1个百分点,连续两个季度保持两位数增长势头。其中,出口219.5亿元,增长20.1%,增幅比上年同期提高24.9个百分点,进口总额70.2亿元,下降8.1%。民营企业出口保持快速增长。上半年全市民营企业出口增长29.0%,快于外商投资企业出口35.7个百分点。对欧盟及“一带一路”沿路国家贸易增长较快。上半年我市对欧盟出口增长25.8%,对沙特阿拉伯、东盟、印度、巴西等“一带一路”沿路国家出口分别增长84.1%、32.5%、31.4%和30.9%。主要产品出口增长较快。机电产品、服装、玩具产品合计出口额比重达到66.4%,分别增长27.2%、17.7%和16.8%。广澳港出口提速增长。上半年,经广澳海关进出口110.2亿元,同比增长21.3%,其中出口90.2亿元,同比增长30.1%,对周边地区货运量的辐射影响力不断上升。

       (三)支撑点三:积极因素有效累积

    物价温和上涨。上半年居民消费价格(CPI)同比上涨2.1%,涨幅比上年同期上涨0.3个百分点;工业品出厂价格指数同比上涨1.2%,涨幅比上年同期上涨0.7个百分点,保持小幅上涨的趋势。就业总体保持稳定。上半年全市累计城镇新增就业人数2.43万人,城镇登记失业率2.45%,基本与上年同期持平。居民收入平稳增长。上半年,全市居民人均可支配收入为14160元,同比增长8.0%,增幅比上年同期同期提高2.8个百分点,扣除价格因素影响实际增长5.8%,增长情况与地区生产总值基本同步。其中,城镇常住居民人均可支配收入16061元,增长7.6%,扣除价格因素影响实际增长5.4%;农村常住居民人均可支配收入为9638元,增长9.6%,扣除价格因素影响实际增长7.3%。新增力量保持平稳增长。上半年全市新登记各类市场主体2.88万户,比上年同期略有提升;企业注册资本总额继续保持稳步增长,上半年企业注册资本总额比2018年底增长10.2%,居粤东西北4市第1位。市场信心继续向好。6月末金融机构本外币存款增长8.6%,增幅比上年同期提高3个百分点,贷款余额增长20.4%,在全省排第3位,连续19个月保持在18%以上的增速。

        二、影响实体经济加快发展的五大压力

    受多重因素影响,全市经济下行压力持续加大,2018年以来全市地区生产总值增速逐季回落,特别是规模以上工业、限额以上批发零售业、商品房销售面积等对地区生产总值影响较大的关键指标增长存在较大困难,未来增长可期空间有限。

    (一)压力点一:工业生产保持稳步增长压力大

    今年以来,全市工业生产面临较大困难。上半年全市工业增加值对经济的贡献率为32.7%,比上年同期减少26.1个百分点,贡献力度大幅削弱;规上工业增加值增速逐月回落,由一季度的5.7%回落至上半年的2.6%,增速低于全省2.2个百分点,在全省各市排第14位;工业用电量同比下降6.4%,居全省倒数第2位。

    印染行业生产回落持续性影响较大。受环保整治政策性因素影响,在潮阳区、潮南区关停的183家印染企业中,其中84家为规上工业企业(34家为涉染企业部分关停),上半年合计完成工业增加值3.23亿元,同比下降78.3%,拉低全市规上工业增加值增速3.3个百分点,占规上工业增加值比重同比回落3.3个百分点,对规上工业造成持续负拉动影响。印染企业关停导致纺织业大幅减产,纺织服装、服饰业累计减产企业数达到164家,占全市规上工业减产企业的比重达到23.5%;纺织业增加值6月当月下降19.5%,累计下降13.7%,保持较大降幅;纺织业、纺织服装服饰业用电量分别下降26.2%和下降17.5%。

    重点企业生产形势较为严峻。火力发电企业生产继续下滑,上半年华能汕头电厂和华能海门电厂合计完成增加值下降23.4%,直接拉低全市规上工业增加值增速0.9个百分点;园区企业生产低迷,全市园区企业完成增加值下降2.1%,拉低全市规上工业增加值增速0.5个百分点;上市公司生产形势两极分化,全市共25家工业上市公司,上半年完成增加值增长6.3%,虽然高于规上工业增加值3.7个百分点,但其中有13家上市公司产值出现负增长。

    中小微型工业企业生产明显回落。全市99%的规上工业企业是中小微型企业,上半年实现增加值同比仅增长1.9%,增幅比上年同期回落10个百分点,比今年一季度回落4个百分点,贡献持续减弱,难以支撑规上工业生产恢复性增长。

    减产企业负拉动影响大。上半年,全市年产值5000万元以上并且产值降幅超过10%的企业(含停产)共有273家,合计减少产值169.12亿元,占全市减产产值总量的85.6%,比重比一季度扩大15.5个百分点,对规上工业造成较大的负拉动影响;全市规上工业减产面(含停产)达到37.1%,比上年同期扩大6.4个百分点,减产面居高不下。

    (二)压力点二:消费品市场持续平稳增长压力大

    上半年,全市批发和零售业增加值177.25亿元,同比增长1.5%,增幅比上年同期回落2.2个百分点,对服务业的贡献率为7.6%,比上年同期降低14.2个百分点。限额以上批发零售业销售额连续五个月在低位区间增长,并从4月份开始出现负增长,成为制约服务业较快增长的不利因素。

    限上批发零售业销售额下降的企业数较多。上半年全市销售额下降的批发零售业企业数比重近五成,合计销售额同比下降36.1%,拉低全市限上批零业销售额增速16.1个百分点。

    重点批发零售业企业经营情况不乐观。2018年销售额4亿元以上的批发业企业,今年上半年完成销售额同比下降3.5%,降幅比上年同期扩大27.2个百分点,占全市限上批发业企业销售额的比重达到53.3%;2018年销售额1亿元以上的零售业企业,上半年完成销售额同比增长3.7%,增幅比上年同期回落6.6个百分点,占全市限上零售业企业销售额的比重达到56.1%。这部分重点批发业和零售业存在较大的经营困难,对整个限上批发零售业难以起到支撑性作用。

    汽车类、石油类商品销售持续低迷。占限上批零业零售额近6成的汽车类商品零售额今年以来连续五个月两位数负增长,上半年同比下降11.2%,直接拉低全市限上批发零售业商品零售额增速7.4个百分点。在国五库存车加大促销力度的利好刺激下,6月当月汽车零售额仅增长0.3%,汽车销售市场低迷形势没有得到根本性扭转。石油及其制品类零售额回落势头进一步加深,上半年同比下降8.7%,降幅比上年同期扩大14个百分点,影响消费增长。

    (三)压力点三:民营经济加快发展难度加大

    我市是民营经济高度集中地区,近年来民营经济增加值比重均在七成左右,对全市经济起到十分重要的贡献,但今年以来全市民营经济发展出现较大困难。

    民营经济增加值增速放缓。上半年全市民营经济增加值881.79亿元,同比增长5.6%,增幅比上年同期回落2个百分点,对地区生产总值的贡献为66.0%,比上年同期减弱9.6个百分点。其中,民营工业增长放缓程度更深,增幅比上年同期回落4.3个百分点。

    民营工业企业生产形势不乐观。上半年全市规模以上民营工业企业完成增加值295.79亿元,占全部规模以上工业增加值的比重高达80.7%,但增长仅为3.6%,增幅比上年同期回落7个百分点,难以对规上工业起到有力支撑。

    民间投资零增长。上半年全市完成民间投资667.39亿元,占全部投资的比重近七成,从3月份起,民间投资低速增长(1-3月下降0.1%,1-4月下降2.8%,1-5月增长1.2%,1-6月零增长),为近年来的最低位增速,对固定资产投资没有起到有力的贡献作用。

    (四)压力点四:投资后劲不足制约实体经济加快发展

    从投资结构看,当前制造业、房地产业、水利环境和公共设施管理业投资是影响投资增长的三大行业,合计投资额占全部投资的比重达到78.4%,但今年以来制造业和房地产业投资增速持续回落,反映实体经济行业投资意愿相对较弱,难以提升实体经济加快发展的后劲。

    制造业投资持续负增长。上半年全市完成制造业投资351.91亿元,占全部投资的比重为35.8%,比重比上年同期回落6.4个百分点;同比下降4.2%,降幅比上年同期扩大2.8个百分点,为近三年来的最低增速,并且降幅继续扩大,今年以来各月均为负增长。其中,先进制造业投资仅增长0.7%,高技术产业投资大幅下降26.9%,优势传统工业投资下降17.8%;由于潮阳、潮南两区印染企业集中关停及搬迁,导致纺织服装企业投资意向较弱,上半年全市纺织服装行业投资同比下降26.5%。

    房地产投资继续走低。上半年全市完成房地产投资178.10亿元,占全部投资的比重为20.9%,比重比上年同期回落5.1个百分点;同比下降11.4%,增幅比上年同期大幅回落40.9个百分点,比今年一季度回落16.4个百分点。由于今年新增房地产开发项目数量少,且投资规模普遍较小,导致房地产开发投资持续低位增长,对我市固定资产投资的支撑作用明显减弱。

    大项目拉动效应不强。上半年全市5000万元以上在建项目仅297个,占全市投资项目总数的比重仅为8.9%,其中近六成是基础设施项目,投向实体经济的大产业项目数量很少。全市投资增长主要依靠小项目拉动,上半年全市5000万元以下在建项目完成投资额占全部项目投资比重达到66.9%,项目数比重达到91.1%,投资规模稳步扩大存在较大的变数,回落风险不容忽视。

    (五)压力点五:中美贸易摩擦影响对稳增长压力较大

    中美贸易摩擦影响持续,我市外贸形势不确定性增大,企业生产及投资相对谨慎。上半年外资企业完成规上工业增加值下降3.3%,降幅比上年同期回落13.4个百分点;港澳台及外商投资增长17.2%,增幅比上年同期大幅回落78.8个百分点。随着中美贸易摩擦进一步加剧的可能性加大,我市外贸持续稳增长的压力也较大。

    总体来看,我市经济运行仍在合理空间,支撑经济高质量发展的有利因素不断累积。各级各部门要深入贯彻落实习近平总书记重要讲话和对广东重要指示批示精神,抢抓粤港澳大湾区建设重大历史机遇,持续优化营商环境,强力推进有效投入,积极优化经济结构,激发经济发展新动能。要加强经济形势监测研判,及时解决经济发展突出问题,重点盯紧规上工业、限上批发零售业、非营利性服务业、建筑业、农林牧渔业和房地产业等对GDP增速影响大的领域精准发力,提高经济运行调度针对性,努力实现全年经济预期目标。

    供稿单位:综合统计科

                                撰    稿:张凤琪

    附表1

    2019上半年全市主要经济指标表

    附表2

    2019年上半年各区县主要经济指标表

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