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2018年前三季度汕头经济运行情况
  • 2018-11-06 16:42
  • 来源:汕头市统计局
  • 发布机构:汕头市统计局
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  • 前三季度,汕头经济运行总体平稳,稳增长基础较为坚实,但受外部挑战变数增大、内部动能转换此强彼弱、发展潜能有待深入挖掘等因素影响,经济运行稳中有变、稳中有进与稳中趋缓、稳中有压交织并存,稳的格局总体没有改变。

    一、稳增长有支撑,经济运行处于合理区间

    前三季度,全市实现地区生产总值1862.49亿元,同比增长7.1%,比上半年回落0.4个百分点,增速居全省第6位,分别高于全国、全省0.4和0.2个百分点,经济运行变化保持在合理区间。其中,第一产业增加值78.74亿元,增长4.1%,第二产业增加值923.36亿元,增长8.9%,第三产业增加值860.39亿元,增长5.4%。三次产业结构调整为4.2:49.6:46.2。部分主要经济指标增势良好,增速排位在全省靠前,显示汕头经济发展保持较强的活力和韧性。其中,规模以上工业增加值增长9.7%,高于全省3.7个百分点,居全省第3位;固定资产投资增长20.6%,高于全省10.4个百分点,居全省第2位;社会消费品零售总额增长9.3%,高于全省0.2个百分点,居全省第10位;金融机构本外币贷款余额增长25.6%,高于全省10.2个百分点,居全省第1位。

    (一)三次产业对经济贡献率不断分化:一二产提升、三产回落

    前三季度,第一产业增长4.1%,增幅比上半年提高1.6个百分点,对经济的贡献率为2.5%,贡献率比上半年提高1个百分点;第二产业增长8.9%,增幅比上半年回落0.5个百分点,对经济的贡献率为63.1%,贡献率比上半年提高1.5个百分点;第三产业增长5.4%,增幅比上半年回落0.5个百分点,对经济的贡献率为34.5%,贡献率比上半年下降2.5个百分点。

    乡村振兴战略推动农业经济加快发展。前三季度农林牧渔业增加值同比增长4.5%,增幅比上半年提高1.6个百分点,是2013年以来的最高增幅。农业经济加快发展。乡村振兴战略成效逐步显现,农业发展进一步加快,农业生产结构调整优化,前三季度农业增加值增长3.3%,增幅比上半年提高1.5个百分点。主要农产品产量增长形势较好。今年以来的农业天气总体较上年好,且应对台风、水灾等自然灾害措施得当,主要农产品增长形势较好,前三季度全市园林水果产量同比增长38.2%,增幅比上半年提高35.5个百分点,拉动农林牧渔业增加值0.9个百分点,蔬菜产量增长4.4%,增幅比上半年提高2.9个百分点,拉动农林牧渔业增加值1个百分点;经济作物中草药材面积增长26.0%。渔业拉动明显。前三季度渔业增加值增长6.3%,拉动农林牧渔业增加值1.9个百分点,水产品总产量增长1.8%,比上半年提高0.7个百分点。

    工业运行支撑扎实。前三季度全市规上工业增加值同比增长9.7%,虽然增幅比上半年回落1.4个百分点,但与去年同期基本持平,对经济的贡献率达到56.8%。行业增长面较好。全市规上工业30个制造业行业大类中,有25个行业增加值实现正增长,其中14个行业高于全市平均水平。支柱产业支撑力良好。纺织服装、工艺玩具、电子信息和机械装备产业合计实现增加值占规上工业的比重达到五成,增速均超过两位数,分别比规上工业快3、2.3、1.9和1.4个百分点。中小微型企业活力较强。中小微型企业前三季度完成工业增加值同比增长9.9%,比大型企业高1.8个百分点,拉动规上工业增加值增长8.5个百分点;1-8月实现利润同比增长15.1%,比大型企业高31.6个百分点。龙头企业持续较快速增长。全市年产值超10亿元以上企业前三季度完成工业增加值同比增长14.4%,拉动规上工业增加值增长2.4个百分点;前三季度全市产值前50强的企业完成工业增加值增长14.0%,拉动规上工业增加值增长3.2个百分点。

    建筑业生产稳步向好。前三季度建筑业总产值增长14.2%,增幅比上半年上升2.1个百分点;增加值增长10.7%(可比价),增幅比上半年上升5.8个百分点。民营建筑业企业贡献突出。民营建筑业企业产值同比增长22.0%,占全部建筑业产值的比重达到65.8%,是全市建筑业加快发展的重要基础力量。重点建筑业企业拉动明显。全市特一级资质总承包企业21家,前三季度完成建筑业总产值同比增长12.2%,占全部总产值的73.8%,有力拉动全市建筑业加快增长。工程储备较为充足。前三季度全市资质内建筑业企业签订合同额同比增长37.7%,增幅比上年同期提高28.5个百分点,为全市建筑业市场加快发展提供有力保障。

    服务业积极变化。前三季度全市服务业增加值860.39亿元,同比增长5.4%,虽然增速比上半年回落0.5个百分点,但行业发展有积极变化。金融流动性不断改善。9月末,全市金融机构本外币贷款余额增长25.6%,同比提高8.6个百分点,存贷比为53.8%,同比提高9.4个百分点;贷款结构有所改善,企业贷款余额增长26.1%,企业中长期贷款余额增长26.2% 分别同比提高17.4和3.5个百分点;制造业贷款增长6.8%,同比提高4.8个百分点,批发零售业、交通运输、邮政和仓储业以及租赁和商务服务业贷款保持两位数以上的快速增长。邮政电信业保持高位运行。邮政业务总量快速增长53.6%,带动交通运输、仓储和邮政业增加值增长13.0%;前三季度汕头快递业务总量同比增长54.1%,在全国各城市中排第18位,反映出我市物流业的发展潜力空间很大;电信业务总量高速增长110.3%,带动其他营利性服务业增加值增长27.7%,两者合计对服务业的贡献率达到33.9%。

    (二)“三驾马车”拉动经济此强彼弱:投资加快、消费平稳、出口降幅收窄

    投资持续加快。前三季度全市完成固定资产投资1342.51亿元,同比增长20.6%,增幅比上半年提高5.4个百分点。服务业投资保持较快增长。前三季度全市完成服务业投资734.29亿元,占全部投资的比重达到54.7%,同比增长32.9%,增速分别超过第一产业和第二产业投资77.9和23.9个百分点,有力拉动投资实现较快增长。其中,房地产业投资增长20.5%,教育、卫生、商务服务业、信息技术服务业、住宿餐饮业等领域投资保持较快增长。工业投资回升势头明显。全市完成工业投资605.74亿元,同比增长9.4%,增幅比上半年提高8.8个百分点,并且连续四个月保持阶梯式增长。其中,装备制造业投资增长30.7%,增幅比上半年提高9.9个百分点,电子及通信设备制造业投资增长161.7%,今年以来各月一直保持高速增长。基础设施投资持续快速增长。全市完成基础设施投资305.15亿元,同比增长46.2%,比全部投资快25.6个百分点。其中交通运输业投资增长47.3%,水利、环境和公共设施管理业增长50.5%,牛田洋快速通道、中以(汕头)科技创新合作区市政道路及配套工程等基础设施建设项目、环保鮀济河(桑浦山—牛田洋段)黑臭水体整治工程等一批交通市政及生态保护环境治理项目稳步推进。5000万元以上投资项目增长迅速。全市5000万元以上在建项目共309个(不含房地产开发),其中超亿元项目207个;完成投资314.42亿元,同比增长67.2%,对投资保持较快增长起到重要的拉动作用。

    消费延续平稳增长势头。前三季度全市实现社会消费品零售总额1330.40亿元,同比增长9.3%,增幅比上半年小幅提升0.1个百分点。出行类商品增长平稳。前三季度占全市限上批零业商品零售额比重近六成的汽车类商品同比增长8.9%,比全省高7.8个百分点,带动石油及制品类零售额增长13.6%,增幅比上半年提高8.3个百分点,对限上单位商品零售起到有力支撑作用。消费升级类商品销售形势良好。全市体育娱乐用品类、书报杂志类、金银珠宝类商品零售额同比分别增长47.9%、30.3%和16.1%。新兴消费业态扭转低位增长势头。全市通过互联网实现的限上批零业商品销售额同比增长10.2%,比上半年和一季度分别大幅提高11.2和39.6个百分点。

    出口降幅有所收窄。前三季度全市进出口总额412.4亿元,同比下降0.8%,降幅比上半年收窄0.5个百分点。其中,出口连续7个月负增长,前三季度出口总额300.5亿元,同比下降2.9%,降幅比上半年收窄1.9个百分点,进口111.9亿元,同比增长5.4%。贸易结构继续改善。前三季度一般贸易进出口下降0.3%,快于同期加工贸易进出口增速12.3个百分点。对欧盟及“一带一路”沿路国家贸易较快增长。前三季度我市对欧盟出口增长7.7%,对印度出口增长32.5%,对俄罗斯联邦出口增长19.4%。

    (三)经济运行质量稳中向好:现代产业增长、经济效益改善、居民收入提升、有利要素累积

    现代产业增势向好。前三季度全市高技术制造业增加值同比增长12.2%,高于全部规上工业2.5个百分点,连续8个月增速超过10%。其中,医药制造业、电子及通信设备制造业等代表性产业发展加快,分别增长18.2%和10.2%;高技术产业投资增长49.5%,为优化产业结构增强后劲。前三季度全市生产性服务业增加值439.67亿元,占服务业比重达到51.1%,同比增长11.7%,增幅比上半年提高0.3个百分点,高于全部服务业6.3个百分点,连续三个季度增速超过11%。

    经济效益稳定增长。税收收入增长较快。前三季度全市一般公共预算收入107.98亿元,同比增长4.5%,其中税收收入73.84亿元,增长13.7%,比全省高1.6个百分点,占一般公共预算收入的比重达到68.4%,比上半年提高2.7个百分点。企业效益继续改善。1-8月,全市规上工业每百元主营业务收入中的成本82.99元,比全省低1.09元;利润总额同比增长10.6%,比上年同期提高9.4个百分点;企业资金回笼速度提高,应收账款平均回收期比去年同期缩短1.9天。

    居民收入稳步提升。前三季度全市居民人均可支配收入19736元,同比增长6.3%,增幅比上半年提高1.1个百分点。城镇居民人均可支配收入22320元,增长5.5%,农村居民人均可支配收入13685元,增长8.9%。

    有利要素不断累积。前三季度全市新登记各类市场主体同比增长40.2%,其中新登记企业增长26.6%,反映出我市创业氛围浓厚;物价持续平稳,居民消费价格(CPI)同比上涨1.8%,涨幅与上半年持平,说明我市供需较为稳定;就业形势保持稳定,前三季度全市累计城镇新增就业人数4.51万人,城镇登记失业率2.47%,与上年同期相比均保持稳定。

        二、稳增长有隐忧,经济下行压力加大

    (一)外向经济变数大对稳增长压力较大

    受中美贸易摩擦影响,我市进出口贸易形势严峻,对企业生产、投资信心造成一些不利影响。前三季度全市有进出口权的规上工业企业增加值增长6.8%,低于规上工业增加值增速2.9个百分点,这部分企业工业品出口额同比下降0.8%;全市规上工业出口交货值同比仅增长1.5%,其中,纺织服装、化工塑料、食品医药等行业产品出口分别下降8.7%、下降4.8%和增长0.8%;前三季度外资企业完成规上工业增加值增幅比上半年回落2.7个百分点,其中港澳台规上工业增加值增速下滑明显,仅增长0.6%,增幅比上半年和上年同期分别回落0.9和8.2个百分点。

    从贸易进出口具体情况看,进出口贸易企业为规避将要征收的高关税提前出单,前三季度对美出口额下降9.6%,降幅比上半年收窄4.6个百分点,预计年末可能继续出现出口总额小幅回升。但随着中美贸易摩擦的进一步加剧,我市进出口企业对美出口持谨慎成交态度,而纺织服装、家具、玩具、水海产品等传统劳动密集型产品占对美出口额八成左右,我市出口形势依然不容乐观。

    (二)工业较快增长压力较大

    企业负增长面较高。前三季度全市1987家规上工业企业中,有1345家企业增加值正增长,增长面为67.7 %,有642家企业增加值下降,下降面达到32.3%。企业生产经营困难较大。从减产面看,减产面居高不下,前三季度全市减产面31.6%,比上半年继续扩大,其中,减产产值前100名的企业,合计减产量占全部减产量比重超过七成,大幅拉低全市规上工业产值增速5.4个百分点;从利润看,制造业行业利润普遍不高,1-8月规上工业企业实现利润同比增长10.6%,但主要得益于电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业的贡献(增长44.8%),制造业实现利润同比增长仅8.4%,全市规上工业30个制造业行业中,有13个行业利润同比负增长,3个行业利润持平,6个行业利润正增长但低于制造业平均水平,仅8个行业利润高于两位数。重点工业企业带动力不足。前三季度全市工业上市公司、总部企业、规上高新技术工业企业增加值分别仅增长5.0%、4.7%和4.6%,远远低于全部规上工业平均水平;全市工业上市公司中,产值负增长的企业达到11家,比上半年增加3家,星辉互动娱乐、名臣健康、猛狮、实丰文化、东方锆业等企业生产经营形势不乐观。金融贷款投向实体经济力度持续弱化。前三季度全市工业贷款同比增长7.9%,其中占比最大的制造业贷款增长6.8%,分别比上半年回落0.2和0.6个百分点,而个人购房贷款增长高达36.4%,金融业对实体经济的扶持未有明显起色。工业新生力量不强。今年以来仅有2家新开工规上工业企业,而据推算年底将有283家企业因规模达不到标准而导致退库。

    (二)服务业回升压力较大

    大多数服务行业发展步伐趋缓。前三季度全市批发零售业增加值同比增长4.1%,住宿餐饮业增加值增长3.1%,金融业增加值增长3.7%,均低于全部服务业增速,很难寄望这部分行业对经济增长有较强拉动,而房地产业和其他非营利性服务业回落势头进一步加剧,分别下降8.1%和4.1%,分别比上半年回落4.9和2.6个百分点,成为服务业止跌回暖的不利因素。此外,交通运输、仓储和邮政业增加值增速较快(增长13.0%)主要是得益于邮政业的快速发展,而作为经济先行风向标的交通运输行业特别是港口运输行业长期发展不景气,前三季度全市货运量增长4.8%,港口货物吞吐量下降17.0%,其中集装箱吞吐量仅增长0.8%,均比上半年继续回落。规上服务业回落势头明显。1-8月全市规上服务业实现营业收入同比增长2.7%,比1-5月回落4.4个百分点,其中,其他营利性服务业营业收入回落幅度持续扩大,1-8月下降13.4%,降幅比1-5月扩大2.1个百分点;规上服务业大企业单位数少,营业收入超亿元的规上服务业企业仅16家,1-8月实现营业收入仅增长1.3%,难以对规上服务业发展起到正向拉动作用;规上服务业行业发展不均衡,从企业数和营业收入来看,主要集中在交通运输仓储邮政业、信息传输软件和信息技术服务业两大行业,而租赁和商务服务业、科学研究和技术服务业、卫生和社会工作、居民服务修理等行业的企业规模严重偏小。

    (三)投资后续发力压力存在

    从投资结构看,结构性问题依然突出。一是5000万元以上项目比重逐月回落,比重由年初的50.6%下降至前三季度的29.8%;二是房地产开发投资体量和占比较低,房地产开发投资287.84亿元,总量在全省排第11位,占全部投资比重为21.4%,比重在全省地级市中排第19位。从项目看,新开工项目少而小。前三季度全市新开工项目2940个(不包括房地产项目),同比仅增长3.7%。其中投资规模5000万元以上项目仅77个,仅占全部新开工项目的2.6%;新开工制造业项目以中小型项目为主,平均规模仅3742万元,远低于全省平均水平。从入库看,大项目入库慢。重点项目入库进展滞后,前三季度全市5000万元以上项目共入库100个,月均仅10个左右;2017年以来全市发改系统审批、核准、备案的551个项目中,仍有近300个项目未能入库列统,难以对投资增速持续快速增长形成有力支撑。

    为抓好全年经济工作,确保经济稳步增长,建议:加强经济形势监测,认真研判区域性、行业性、苗头性问题,及时跟踪重点企业、重点行业运行情况,采取积极措施化解经济运行压力。认真落实中央将出台的更加积极的财政政策和松紧适度的货币政策、省将出台的金融支持实体经济等一系列政策措施,促进实体经济健康发展。持续优化营商环境,优化要素资源配置,为微观经济运行创造良好的市场环境。加快推进重点项目和基础设施投资项目建设,着力补齐发展短板,尽快形成产业发展新的支撑。加强“四上”企业培育,形成经济新的增长点。

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